The Bullet-Less4: NFL Week 12

In the words of the late, great Harry Caray: "Holy Cow." It's already Thanksgiving? What? Where did the last couple of months go? It feels like just days ago I was shaking in glorious anticipation of my friends' visit for the Packers-Jets game at the Meadowlands for Halloween. Now...I sit with visions of turkey and football in my head as a lovely 3-slate game of NFL Games gave me reason to eat and sit around like the Jared of old. With that lovely vision, I give you the Bullet-Less4 NFL Update for Thanksgiving Weekend (And to keep with the theme of the blog, let's do them in reverse order of importance):

The Best Reality Show on TV, the Minnesota Vikings keep entertaining the NFL audience. After my beloved Pack put a GRADE A BEATDOWN on the Queens last Sunday, they fired their child molester-looking coach. I love to see this team battered, embarrassed, and more importantly, irrelevant. It is now safe to say that I officially have no further interest in this program and will direct all of my reality-viewing to House Hunters on HGTV (I clearly don't watch much reality TV and clearly have a girlfriend).

The Obvious Bullet-Less of Bias: The Green Bay Packers were showered in expectations before the season. Five weeks in, they were considered to be in the tank after several season-ending injuries and back-to-back OT losses to Washington and Miami. Eleven weeks in, they are 7-3 and tied for the lead in the NFC North despite the pile up on their IR list. After their last two blowout wins (resulting in the firing of two head coaches), they look strong. I have no idea what to think about their prospects going into December, but know I am in love with our defense. Yes I said our. Anything less than a playoff win would make me a sad panda.

The Contest of Insignificance is getting tighter. After praising our league leader, Steve L, a few weeks ago, he has stumbled enough to give the rest of us hope. The interesting thing is that we all seem to be performing better as a group with 66% of us with better than .500 records. As "the guy tied for 3rd place," I can only hope this goes down to the final weeks. Here are my picks for week 12, starting with one on Thanksgiving to ensure I care about at least one game:
ATL -2.5 v. GB - The Falcons are beasts at home, no question about it. I hate picking against my favorite team, but this is a gambling man's contest.
OAK -3 v. MIA - The Raiders, much to my disappointment (I have $40 on them going <6.5 wins on the season) are decent. Also, the Dolphins have a carousel at QB.
DET +7 v. NE - As I write this, I know I am wrong here because the Pats BLASTED the Lions. I thought that an under rated home team on a short week would be a good bet. Whoops.
PHI - 3 @ CHI - The Eagles have been favored by 3 the last two weeks and I have picked them the last two weeks. I'm going to keep it rolling.
SD +3 @ IND - I was REALLY close to picking DAL +3.5 instead of this game. Dallas did in fact cover, so I hope Pip Rivers doesn't make me eat my words and the Chargers can find a way to keep it close with Indy.

The Best Team in the NFL is...
Honestly, this is impossible to judge. My gut says the AFC is hosting the top teams (Pats/Steelers/Ravens/Jets), but as we have all seen, even when one conference seems dominant, they don't produce the Super Bowl champion. My only prediction at this point is that the final weeks of 2010 will not show us anything different than we have seen. Many experts say that we will see "after Thanksgiving" who the top 2-3 teams are. This year, we will go into January with 5-6 teams that can win the whole thing. Hopefully, we get the same thing next season...or just ANYTHING at all for NFL drama next season (outside of a lockout/strike). Since everyone feels the need to put their pick down on paper, here is mine at this point:
PHILLY vs. NYJ - Vick has Philly looking like a team that is impossible to stop and the Jets are going to be tough to beat with their running game in the cold. Jets 27 - Philly 24.



Buckle up for a great finish to the NFL Season, the Contest of Insignificance, and the end of 2010. As for now, buckle up with friends and family and Happy Turkey to everyone...IN YO' MOUTHS!

The Contest of Insignificance: Week 9

In my last post on the joys of gaming, I promised to post updates regarding my progress in the Contest of Insignificance. While only about 15 people read this (at best), I figured it is better to keep those people entertained than to just quit.

For those of you who are new, here is how it works: We pick 5 games/lines every week to bet against in the NFL. We keep score all season on how well we do against the Vegas spreads. Winner takes all. At $20 a head and a small amount of players, the title of the contest seems appropriate.

Before Week 8's games, I was in 2nd place and felt good about my selections. After Week 8, I was in 4th place and discouraged. Such as life in the world of a guy just looking for a break. It likely doesn't matter how I fare each week, but it's fun to pretend like I can catch Steve L. Read my last post to learn about the real contest and to see how the guy leading our $20 contest would be within spitting distance of the pedestal.

But, the beauty of the NFL is that each week brings new life. Here are my Week 9 picks and how I fared. I know it's Monday and there is still one game left, but I wanted nothing to do with the PIT/CIN game. Nothing in gambling...and likely nothing in viewing.

WEEK 9: 3-1-1 Record - moving me back into a tie for 3rd place.

Pretty solid bounce back week for me after falling under the 50% mark last week. Here is how it broke out...

1) NYG -6 @ SEA. WIN
I rarely feel amazing about my selections. If I were near a casino I would have dumped at least $50 on this line. There has been only 1 other line all season that I felt this good about and that was week 4 in which the Jets were favored by 5.5 at Buffalo. This is when Buffalo couldn't do anything and the Jets were pummeling teams. I said to my friend Steve F: "I would bet a house on this game." I wish I would have done the same with the Giants. They were up 28-0 before I even blinked and destroyed Seattle.

2) TB +8 @ ATL. WIN
Tampa, as I mentioned in my last post, looks strong this season after a pitiful 2009. Atlanta is good, but 8 points was just the right amount of cushion for me. It turned out to be almost the exact cushion Tampa gamblers needed as the Falcons won by 6. Note: Tampa had a shot to win the the game late, but failed to convert on a 4th and 1 play.

3) NYJ -4 @ DET. LOSS
Thanks Jets. Detroit is definitely improving as Stafford is looking like a true starting QB. I thought to myself "no way Rex Ryan (coach of the Jets) allows this team lose to DET this week. They are going to be pissed." The Jets were shut out at home a week earlier by the Packers (a game I was fortunate to be at). I was right, they didn't lose. But they also didn't win by enough - Jets by 3 on the first possession in Overtime.

4) IND +3 @ PHI. WIN
This was nothing but good ol' fashioned luck. This bet seemed too good to be true. Indy as an underdog against an Eagles team that is strong but starting a QB coming off of a rib inury? THROW THE HOUSE AT IT! Better to be lucky than good, right? A sketchy at best unnecessary roughness call on PHI defensive end Trent Cole kept a late Colts drive alive long enough for Peyton to punch in one more TD. See the highlight at about 2:25 here. Philly wins by 2 as they run out the clock. INDY gamblers everywhere rejoice!

5) BUF +3 vs. CHI (In Toronto). TIE
This game was one of those feel good picks that I couldn't avoid. Buffalo had lost two games in a row in OT by 3 points. Chicago was shaky going into their bye week and traveling to an indoor stadium in Canada. Buffalo was winning late in the 4th quarter and trying to put the game away when quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick threw an interception that led to the CHI game winning TD. Apparently 0-8 teams really do find ways to blow games, because Buffalo had an Extra Point blocked and Chicago hit a 2 pt conversion. It changed the entire outcome of the game for the gambling public. Chicago wins 22-19.

SEASON RECORD: 21-21-3

Talk about Even Steven.