Homer: You like ice cream, don't you?
Lisa: Uh huh.
Homer: And don't you like ice cream better when it's covered with hot fudge?
And mounds of whipped cream? [getting carried away] And chopped nuts?
And, ooh, those crumbled-up cookie things they mash up?
Mmm... Crumbled-up cookie things...
Lisa concludes that ``gambling makes a good thing even better.''
I was tempted to use that exact analogy to discuss gambling and the NFL... It is spot on. However, I want to share a statement that sums up how I feel about the topic:
"you know my obsession with sports is a problem when i find ways to make lions @ bills exciting"
My esteemed colleague (and writer of A Shot in the Arm) said the above to me via one of our many IM conversations about football, and more specifically about gambling.
I would say that neither one of us is a gambling addict (except for him), but that each of us would agree 100% that it's an activity that can make pointless things...pointed.
With that, I bring to you The Hilton Supercontest: "Win BIG in the most respected, challenging and prestigious Pro football handicapping contest in the world!" This "contest" pits 300+ people against each other ($1,500/head) in a season-long battle of choosing 5 NFL lines every week. As a gambling addict, Steve had to have a taste. Unfortunately for him, he works in education and can't afford the entrance fee (to be fair neither can I). So, he did the next logical thing possible: Started a friendly $20 game amongst friends.
We have just completed week 7 of what I am deeming the Contest of Insignificance. Appropriately named based on the difference between our prize and the Supercontest Pot of Prizes - roughly $524,880 for those keeping score at home. This thing is driving me bonkers. I have much more money "invested" into Fantasy Football, yet for some reason I found myself recklessly yelling at the TV when Ben Rapelisburger fumbled the ball at the 1 yard line against the Dolphins on Sunday. With about 2:30 remaining in the game, Big Ben ran for the end zone and had the ball knocked loose 6 inches short of the goal line. Pittsburgh was granted the ball after some deliberation and they elected to kick a field goal to take a 1 point lead. Steeler fans rejoice! Their team is winning by 1 point! Meanwhile, I am vomiting in the corner. I NEEDED that Touchdown. A field goal does me no good. Beating Miami by 1 is as good as a loss to me when they are supposed to win by at least 3!
WTF!?!&&*&!
Minutes later, I found myself vested in the Tampa Bay-St. Louis game. This game featured TWO teams that combined for FOUR wins in 2009...teams that were supposed to be terrible in 2010 (they are average right now). This is not a recipe for a game of interest. However, with seconds left in the game, Tampa Bay scored a touchdown to go up by 1 point. I have them selected at -2.5 (meaning they have to win by at least 3 points), so my frustration continues. But wait! Hold the phone! Steve reminds me that the Buccaneers will go for the 2-point conversion instead of the extra point! They have a chance to go up by 3 points! Sadly, they fail (or I fail since Tampa still won the game...by 1 point).
WTF!?!&&*&!
This is what makes the Supercontest (and gambling in general) so great. I could have cared less about the Dolphins and Steelers or Buccaneers and Rams. But, each game was one of my 5 picks for the week. You have to find a way to make it exciting.
Check back for regular updates on my progress through this tumultuous NFL season. As we approach the halfway point, I am just below .500 with 16 wins, 17 losses and 2 ties. The good news is that my record is barely good enough for 2nd place in the Contest of Insignificance. The bad news is that Steve L (yes, a different Steve) is just crushing everyone right now (record: 21-12-2). In fact, that b@st@rd's record would put him in the running for the actual Supercontest in Vegas - the leader has 25 wins.
This just shows us that whoever is making these lines is good at it.
Here are my picks for Week 8:
DEN -even: I just don't see how SF can win without Alex Smith. My gut is crying for me to leave this game alone, but I don't believe in the Troy Smith era. I believe in Frank Gore, but also think it will be hard for SF to run with 14 guys in the box.
TB +3: This pick is solely on how disgusted I am by Arizona this year. Also, TB is showing improvement all the time and manages to keep games close.
PIT -even: New Orleans could easily show up for this game. They don't have a running game and Pittsburgh doesn't allow teams to run...so that's a wash. With Big Ben at the healm, I see enough Pitt O to overcome a potential 45 pass onslaught from Brees.
OAK -2.5: This may be the first game OAK has been favored in all year. I'm too lazy to check, but know that Seattle is about 1/2 the team on the road. Maybe they only bring 1/2 of their players?
DAL +6.5: I was really close to picking Miami+2 here. I may come to eat it. Jacksonville's defense can't stop anyone and I am hoping that gives Kitna the cushion he needs to cover up for his inevitable 2 INT game. The good news? Garrard is bad on the road and hasn't played since his concussion. I like the guy, not the situation.
UPDATE (11/2/10): I went 2-3 this week. That isn't going to cut it.
