"What about this weather says to you 'run?'"
Words said by my friend Aaron Monroe to my father, Bob Johnstone.
My dad is a "Manimal" in all sense of the word. He has completed 5 Iron Man Triathlons, 25+ Marathons, and even more triathlons of all distances (sprint, olympic, Half-Ironman, you name it). At some point, I noticed that he was becoming one of those crazy exercise people. Maybe it was the day Aaron asked him the above question? A day when he decided to go for a run during a gloomy, cold, rainy, crappy day in Green Bay, WI. That's when Aaron posed the question. Despite that craziness (even he would admit it), he instilled the value of fitness/exercise into both Katie (sister) and me. Since a fun bet with him when I was 18 (Finish a 10k in under 60 minutes = $40; Finished in 52 minutes!), I have completed a variety of organized events from 5k's to Duathlons to Half-Marathons. However, unlike my sister, I have yet to complete a triathlon. She is certainly our father's daughter! You would think that fact alone would have motivated me to sign up for my first TRI. I couldn't possibly let my LITTLE sister one up me?! Yet...a triathlon just never called to me...until now.
As of Wednesday, February 2, 2011, I have committed to raise over $3,000 as part of Team In Training's quest to eliminate cancer. Oh...and that means that I will be attacking my first ever Triathlon. The New York City Triathlon features a 10k run through Central Park, a 40k bike through Manhattan/the Bronx, and a little swim - 1500 meters in the Hudson River. Not the East River like Kramer. What pushed me over the edge, you ask? Three Things.
Since graduating college, I had turned much of my focus inward. Career. Growing Up. Not Growing Up. Experiencing Life. Pretending to be a rock star. I had abandoned much of my community involvement from high school and the early years of college. I have been looking for a way to get back to that mindset of helping others.
I am friends with Doug Jossem. Doug happens to be the leader of a team of over 40 Yahoo! employees that participated in the the NYC Triathlon in 2010. A team that raised over $200k to fight cancer. Doug has a powerful story and I went out to support him and the team last August. After Doug gave me the grossest, sweatiest hug ever when he saw me cheering along the course, I finally felt that calling that I hadn't experienced in the past.
Finally, and most importantly, cancer has impacted the mothers of my two best friends on the planet. Two women who could not have been nicer to me while growing up in Green Bay. Two women that acted as surrogate mothers to me. Two women that devoted their lives to helping others. Kathy Rentmeester and Diane Fenster. I will be racing in their honor for all that they have given to me.
The day I signed up to be a part of this team, the Team in Training staff asked everyone to stand up who knows someone close to them that has been affected by cancer. Guess how many people were on their feet? EVERY SINGLE PERSON IN THE ROOM. While I am racing for Kathy and Diane, everyone has their own story. This event is about eliminating something that negatively impacts the lives of way way WAY too many people.
Despite always thinking I would do my first triathlon with my dad and sister, this feels bigger, more important. My training starts in mid-March, but my fundraising starts now. Please support this amazing cause and if you can, please support me.
DONATION PAGE: http://pages.teamintraining.org/nyc/nyctri11/rjohnstone
Thanks and God Bless!
RJ
Wednesday, March 2, 2011
Tuesday, February 1, 2011
Super Bowl Week and the Playoff Picks Finale
Let's get something straight. I couldn't be happier that the Packers are playing in the Super Bowl. It is a treat to experience your favorite team fighting for 5 months to get to the ultimate stage in Sports. However, this is new territory for my nerves, for my anxiety and for my heart. When the Packers were last in the Super Bowl, I was 16 years old. I had yet to invest so many Sunday trips to Packer bars in Minneapolis, West Los Angeles and New York to watch my beloved team. After a week of recycled stories and Super Bowl coverage, Sunday cannot come soon enough. I am on edge. I am getting angry at even the thought of having to watch the game with non-football or non-Packer fans. That isn't me? I love Super Bowl parties for the food, socialization, etc, etc. Right now, part of me wants to sit in a room, alone, with a bucket of wings and a case of some WI beer on Sunday night.
What I need right now is a healthy list of distractions. My great friend Ryno will be visiting me in New York City this weekend. I am counting on that getting me from Thursday to Sunday. He doesn't know it yet, but I am absolutely using him as a way to keep me from melting down before kickoff on Sunday night. Until Thursday night, however, I am shifting my focus back to the Battle of Infrequently Read Bloggers with Steve Fenster from A Shot in the Arm.
If you need a recap on each round to get caught up, feel free to browse:
Wild Card
Divisional Playoff
Championship Games
Talk about the perfect drama. After making our picks over the course of 3 weeks and 10 games, Steve takes a 1-game lead into the Big One. Here are the records:
Steve: 6-4
Rob: 5-5
INTENSE STARE DOWN!!!
With only the Super Bowl remaining, I can still push this contest into a tiebreaker. Before we dig into our picks, let's touch on a few of our favorite Prop Bets for the Super Bowl.
How many players will get arrested during Super Bowl week (over/under .5)
Honestly, neither of us would really bet on this. It's simply hilarious that a Sports Book would actually list this as a possible bet. Especially since they did not phrase the question as "will a player get arrested?" but instead "how many?" Faaaaantastic.
Will a team score three times in a row (no; +125)
Steve and I disagree here. Steve's Take: I wouldn't take this. For only one reason. I listened to a podcast featuring the head of the Hilton Sports Book in Vegas, and when asked which prop to pay attention to, he mentioned this one as a prop that tons of fans think seems like a no-brainer and lose on. I trust the man who invented the Super Contest. Readers Beware! My take: I'm the illogical guy. I feel like these two defenses are better than the average seen in recent Super Bowls. The only thing that worries me here is a special teams big play...and neither team is particularly strong in that department. I would put $20 or $50 on this.
Ben Roethlisberger MVP (+350)
Steve's Take: If you like the Steelers in this game, your moneyline odds are between +120 and +130, depending on what Sports Book you look at. But Roethlisberger is better than three-to-one? If the Steelers win, the writers are going to lean towards him. The QB for MVP option hasn't happened quite as regularly in the past decade as in the past, but they have never given the award to him before, so the writers will give Big Ben the benefit of the doubt if it is close. Similarly, you are better off betting on Rodgers for MVP (+175) than you are betting the Packers (-130). My Take: I agree with Steve on this. The only red flag that I would raise here is would the voters avoid Ben because of his tumultuous offseason? Over 3:1 is good enough for the risk.
Aaron Rodgers TD Passes
This is a two-part bet created by Steve: The over-under on TD passes for Rodgers is 2. You bet the under on that, even though you aren't getting great odds (-155). Then you bet a smaller amount that Rodgers will throw exactly 2 TD passes (which is +200). I think the chances Rodgers throws three touchdowns on the Steelers defense is pretty low. If he throws one touchdown, you win the under bet. If he throws 2 (which I think is the most likely outcome), you push on the over/under and get paid off two-to-one on the "exactly 2 touchdowns" bet. Here's how that could play out: You bet $100 on the under and $50 on exactly 2. If Rodgers throws no touchdowns or one touchdown, you net $14 (lose $50 on the 2 td bet, win $64 on the over/under). If he throws 2 touchdowns, you net $100 (push on over/under, win $100 on exactly 2). You could hedge this further by betting Rodgers for MVP as well.
WR Prop Bets featuring James Jones
If you like the Packers, here is a potential parlay or 2-part bet that I like featuring JJ: Take Jones to have MORE receiving yards than Steelers' TE Heath Miller (EVEN) and then take Jones to have MORE receptions than Packers' WR Jordy Nelson (+105). If you really like Jones, feel free to throw on an Andrew Jackson on him to score the game's 1st Touchdown (12:1) or the Packers' 1st TD (7:1). Believe in JJ for a nice pay day.
HISTORICAL PROP-Total Passing Yards: Aaron Rodgers Super Bowl 45 vs. Brett Favre Super Bowl 31
I would never bet this. It is simply ridiculous. As if Rodgers needs any more connection to Brett Favre, we are now pinning them in a head-to-head match for stats from a game that already happened. Silly. For the record, it's Rodgers (-29.5). If you want, you can even bet Roethlisburger against himself from his last Super Bowl appearance!
Here we stand. We are both nervous wrecks and NEED distractions. If you know us well enough, you know Steve and I embody the term FANATIC when it comes to Green Bay Packer football. Hopefully, you also know that if things on Sunday do not go well, it may be a storybook ending for us on Monday. Keep your legs, toes and fingers crossed. Until then...
Green Bay Packers (-2.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Super Bowl 45
Rob's Take: I have previously written about how much I disgust the amount of hype and praise The Pack is getting right now. I dislike that they are 2.5 point favorites over a team that has lost only 4 games all season to 4 teams that had 11 or more wins. What worries me most is the tendency of the Green Bay offense to take regularly scheduled catnaps during games. That could be quite problematic against the #1 scoring defense in the NFL.
The media has been hammering on the fact that the Packers are less experienced and a young team. More importantly, I believe they are hungrier. The Steelers have been there before, but when it comes down to a game of football, I think it really carries no value. I have to push my chips All-In on Dom Capers and the Packers defense to overcome a couple of those offensive siestas to bring the trophy back to Titletown.
Pick: Packers 27, Steelers 20
Steve's Take:
First of all, let me say that I am already an emotional wreck over this game. Last night I had a dream that the Packers won by two touchdowns, only to wake up in a panic because I was worried that my dream would jinx the team. There is nothing rational about what will happen this week. I have spent a dangerous amount of time thinking about which routines to keep or break to not ruin any voodoo or juju or karma or whatever you want to call it when it comes to this game. I think I am going to be excited at some point, but mostly I am nervous and terrified right now. Why do I love this sport again?
Okay. For the sake of Packer fans everywhere, I am continuing my trend and going with the Steelers. However, I have to say that I am really surprised at this line. I know the Packers have won three straight road games, but they looked pretty shaky in that second half against the Bears. As impressive as that Falcons game was, the Packers haven't played that many great games from start to finish. Yet they are favored in this game. Against a team playing it's third Super Bowl in six years. A team with the #1 scoring defense in the NFL.
In addition, the Packers have been particularly poor in close games during the Mike McCarthy/Aaron Rodgers era. I'm not sure either of them can be blamed for this, but I have a hard time remembering too many memorable game winning drives with them. How will this team react in a close game? We just saw the Steelers pull this off in the Super Bowl. And they are getting points? I'm confused.
Pick: Steelers 24, Packers 20. Here's to hoping I'm wrong again.
And to wrap it all off, here is a special, super edition of the Bullet-Less4: Top Chants you may hear from Packer fans in Dallas:
KUUUUUUHHHHHHNNNNNNN!!!!!!!!
YANCY THIGPEN! Clap-clap, clapclapclap!
NO MEANS NO! NO MEANS NO! NO MEANS NO!
http://www.pacfan.com/gopack.wav
What I need right now is a healthy list of distractions. My great friend Ryno will be visiting me in New York City this weekend. I am counting on that getting me from Thursday to Sunday. He doesn't know it yet, but I am absolutely using him as a way to keep me from melting down before kickoff on Sunday night. Until Thursday night, however, I am shifting my focus back to the Battle of Infrequently Read Bloggers with Steve Fenster from A Shot in the Arm.
If you need a recap on each round to get caught up, feel free to browse:
Wild Card
Divisional Playoff
Championship Games
Talk about the perfect drama. After making our picks over the course of 3 weeks and 10 games, Steve takes a 1-game lead into the Big One. Here are the records:
Steve: 6-4
Rob: 5-5
INTENSE STARE DOWN!!!
With only the Super Bowl remaining, I can still push this contest into a tiebreaker. Before we dig into our picks, let's touch on a few of our favorite Prop Bets for the Super Bowl.
How many players will get arrested during Super Bowl week (over/under .5)
Honestly, neither of us would really bet on this. It's simply hilarious that a Sports Book would actually list this as a possible bet. Especially since they did not phrase the question as "will a player get arrested?" but instead "how many?" Faaaaantastic.
Will a team score three times in a row (no; +125)
Steve and I disagree here. Steve's Take: I wouldn't take this. For only one reason. I listened to a podcast featuring the head of the Hilton Sports Book in Vegas, and when asked which prop to pay attention to, he mentioned this one as a prop that tons of fans think seems like a no-brainer and lose on. I trust the man who invented the Super Contest. Readers Beware! My take: I'm the illogical guy. I feel like these two defenses are better than the average seen in recent Super Bowls. The only thing that worries me here is a special teams big play...and neither team is particularly strong in that department. I would put $20 or $50 on this.
Ben Roethlisberger MVP (+350)
Steve's Take: If you like the Steelers in this game, your moneyline odds are between +120 and +130, depending on what Sports Book you look at. But Roethlisberger is better than three-to-one? If the Steelers win, the writers are going to lean towards him. The QB for MVP option hasn't happened quite as regularly in the past decade as in the past, but they have never given the award to him before, so the writers will give Big Ben the benefit of the doubt if it is close. Similarly, you are better off betting on Rodgers for MVP (+175) than you are betting the Packers (-130). My Take: I agree with Steve on this. The only red flag that I would raise here is would the voters avoid Ben because of his tumultuous offseason? Over 3:1 is good enough for the risk.
Aaron Rodgers TD Passes
This is a two-part bet created by Steve: The over-under on TD passes for Rodgers is 2. You bet the under on that, even though you aren't getting great odds (-155). Then you bet a smaller amount that Rodgers will throw exactly 2 TD passes (which is +200). I think the chances Rodgers throws three touchdowns on the Steelers defense is pretty low. If he throws one touchdown, you win the under bet. If he throws 2 (which I think is the most likely outcome), you push on the over/under and get paid off two-to-one on the "exactly 2 touchdowns" bet. Here's how that could play out: You bet $100 on the under and $50 on exactly 2. If Rodgers throws no touchdowns or one touchdown, you net $14 (lose $50 on the 2 td bet, win $64 on the over/under). If he throws 2 touchdowns, you net $100 (push on over/under, win $100 on exactly 2). You could hedge this further by betting Rodgers for MVP as well.
WR Prop Bets featuring James Jones
If you like the Packers, here is a potential parlay or 2-part bet that I like featuring JJ: Take Jones to have MORE receiving yards than Steelers' TE Heath Miller (EVEN) and then take Jones to have MORE receptions than Packers' WR Jordy Nelson (+105). If you really like Jones, feel free to throw on an Andrew Jackson on him to score the game's 1st Touchdown (12:1) or the Packers' 1st TD (7:1). Believe in JJ for a nice pay day.
HISTORICAL PROP-Total Passing Yards: Aaron Rodgers Super Bowl 45 vs. Brett Favre Super Bowl 31
I would never bet this. It is simply ridiculous. As if Rodgers needs any more connection to Brett Favre, we are now pinning them in a head-to-head match for stats from a game that already happened. Silly. For the record, it's Rodgers (-29.5). If you want, you can even bet Roethlisburger against himself from his last Super Bowl appearance!
Here we stand. We are both nervous wrecks and NEED distractions. If you know us well enough, you know Steve and I embody the term FANATIC when it comes to Green Bay Packer football. Hopefully, you also know that if things on Sunday do not go well, it may be a storybook ending for us on Monday. Keep your legs, toes and fingers crossed. Until then...
Green Bay Packers (-2.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Super Bowl 45
Rob's Take: I have previously written about how much I disgust the amount of hype and praise The Pack is getting right now. I dislike that they are 2.5 point favorites over a team that has lost only 4 games all season to 4 teams that had 11 or more wins. What worries me most is the tendency of the Green Bay offense to take regularly scheduled catnaps during games. That could be quite problematic against the #1 scoring defense in the NFL.
The media has been hammering on the fact that the Packers are less experienced and a young team. More importantly, I believe they are hungrier. The Steelers have been there before, but when it comes down to a game of football, I think it really carries no value. I have to push my chips All-In on Dom Capers and the Packers defense to overcome a couple of those offensive siestas to bring the trophy back to Titletown.
Pick: Packers 27, Steelers 20
Steve's Take:
First of all, let me say that I am already an emotional wreck over this game. Last night I had a dream that the Packers won by two touchdowns, only to wake up in a panic because I was worried that my dream would jinx the team. There is nothing rational about what will happen this week. I have spent a dangerous amount of time thinking about which routines to keep or break to not ruin any voodoo or juju or karma or whatever you want to call it when it comes to this game. I think I am going to be excited at some point, but mostly I am nervous and terrified right now. Why do I love this sport again?
Okay. For the sake of Packer fans everywhere, I am continuing my trend and going with the Steelers. However, I have to say that I am really surprised at this line. I know the Packers have won three straight road games, but they looked pretty shaky in that second half against the Bears. As impressive as that Falcons game was, the Packers haven't played that many great games from start to finish. Yet they are favored in this game. Against a team playing it's third Super Bowl in six years. A team with the #1 scoring defense in the NFL.
In addition, the Packers have been particularly poor in close games during the Mike McCarthy/Aaron Rodgers era. I'm not sure either of them can be blamed for this, but I have a hard time remembering too many memorable game winning drives with them. How will this team react in a close game? We just saw the Steelers pull this off in the Super Bowl. And they are getting points? I'm confused.
Pick: Steelers 24, Packers 20. Here's to hoping I'm wrong again.
And to wrap it all off, here is a special, super edition of the Bullet-Less4: Top Chants you may hear from Packer fans in Dallas:
KUUUUUUHHHHHHNNNNNNN!!!!!!!!
YANCY THIGPEN! Clap-clap, clapclapclap!
NO MEANS NO! NO MEANS NO! NO MEANS NO!
http://www.pacfan.com/gopack.wav
Thursday, January 20, 2011
NFL Playoffs Picks: Championship Round
To the 16 readers out there...
My embarrassing showing in the Battle of Infrequently Read Bloggers for NFL Picks Supremacy is on the road this week. You can follow the competition at Steve's blog: A Shot in the Arm. We will make our final NFL appearance back here for the Super Bowl, at which point Steve will probably be victorious and rubbing his victory in my face.
My embarrassing showing in the Battle of Infrequently Read Bloggers for NFL Picks Supremacy is on the road this week. You can follow the competition at Steve's blog: A Shot in the Arm. We will make our final NFL appearance back here for the Super Bowl, at which point Steve will probably be victorious and rubbing his victory in my face.
Tuesday, January 11, 2011
Playoff Picks Challenge | Week 2 with Guest Blogger!
What a first weekend of NFL Playoff Football! From the Seahawks' shocking upset of the Saints, to the Cardiac Pack living up to their well deserved nickname, I couldn't have been more pleased with the games last weekend (sorry Chiefs' fans) from a fan standpoint (Note: Had the Packers lost, the tone of this post would have been drastically different).
From a picks perspective, it certainly could have gone better. As the Write it in Reverse vs. A Shot in the Arm post-season picks challenge continues into it's second week, Steve and I are in a dead heat with matching 2-2 results. Let's reflect briefly on our Wild Card selections before diving into the Divisional round picks.
Wild Card Round:
Seattle over New Orleans
Rob (Pick Saints): When did the Saints' defense take a mid-season course in Houston?
Steve (Pick Saints): I was too chicken to pick this game the way I wanted to; I hate myself for not trusting my instincts.
Jets over Colts
Rob (Pick Colts): After the Colts went up by only 2 with 0:53 remaining, I started rooting for the Jets to win so I could see this face.
Steve (Pick Jets): I LOVE THE PEYTON MANNING POUTY FACE!!!! HAHAHAHAHAHA, EAT IT, JOHNSTONE!
Ravens over Chiefs
Steve (Pick Ravens): Ravens = Nelson, Chiefs = Milhouse
Rob (Pick Ravens): Steve and I were in complete agreement on this game.
Packers over Eagles
Steve (Pick Eagles): I have never been happier to lose a bet/pick in my life.
Rob (Pick Packers): It feels good to be right about the Packers' defense making a play to win the game...even if I was horribly wrong about the score.
Let's move on to the Divisional Playoff Round where the battle of infrequently read bloggers continues! And look for next week's picks and recap back on A Shot in the Arm.
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers (-3)
Rob's Take: Like most "experts" I am expecting a bullish, low-scoring GRIND on Saturday afternoon (Over/Under of 37). These two teams combined for 8 losses and only 1 was against a non-playoff team. This is a heavyweight bout. What makes this Rubber Match even cooler is that the total score for both teams this season is 27 in their match ups. Something has to give. In a game that could go either way, give me the points. Pick: Ravens
Steve's Take: I think this is definitely the hardest game to pick. This is essentially a coin flip scenario for me. I decided that I trust The Rapist more than Flacco. I also think the week off may have given the Steelers a chance to work on some of their offensive line problems. Pick: Steelers
Green Bay @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Falcons (-2.5)
Rob's Take: Round 1 of this match up proved to be worth every dime as Atlanta's starting QB Matty Ice led the Falcons to a late victory. The Falcons have been downright nasty at home... posting a record of 20-4 since 2008 (Two of those losses without Matt Ryan playing). The Packers defense is getting better every week. After they allowed 20+ points in 5 of the first 7 games, they have locked down opponents, allowing more than an Andrew Jackson only twice in their last 10. My biggest concern is the offensive mistakes the Packers can make (drops, penalties, fumbles), but that concern is not enough. Give me the Pack and the points. Plus, I have to take the Packers because it worked last week. Pick: Green Bay
Steve's Take: It worked last week. Pick: Falcons
Seattle Seahawks @ Chicago Bears
Line: Bears (-10)
Steve's Take: I have no idea what to make of this game. Matt Hasselbeck apparently took steroids during his week off and rejuvenated his career. Pete Carroll showed why he has been considered a great coach for the past decade. And I’m not buying any of it. The Cardinals made me look foolish 2 years ago when they went to the Super Bowl after an unimpressive 9-7 regular season, but I refuse to take this Seattle team on the road...even if they keep coming back to bite me for my stubbornness. I think a lot of people might jump on Seattle after last week, but I am cautious of overreacting. Also: Bears Defense > Saints Defense. Seattle isn’t scoring 41 against Urlacher and Co. Pick: Bears
Rob's Take: Here we go again. Another game for the Seahawks, another HUGE line against them. They are definitely a different team at home as noted by their Seismic Support in Seattle. The 'Hawks won all of 2 road games this season, and one was against the Bears. I think that the Bears are offensively challenged enough to keep this under a 10 point difference. Will the Bears be victim to another catastrophic upset? No. But they only won 4 games by more than 10 points this year and two of those were against the ViQueens. Pick: Seahawks
NY Jets @ New England Patriots
Line: Patriots (-8.5)
Steve's Take: Everyone remembers the Patriots’ dismantling of the Jets in their last meeting. It was an embarrassing game. I stopped watching it by halftime, when it was clear that “Bad Sanchise” had come to play for the Jets. I feel pretty lucky to have won with the Jets on the road last week, and it’s dangerous to bet against the Patriots. But 8.5 is a lot of points to give when the Jets still boast a top-10 defense. I think they keep it close enough to cover the spread. Pick: Jets
Rob's Take: More intriguing re-matches! In the AFC's second Rubber Match, the New England Belichicks are looking to shut up Rex Ryan for the remainder of the season. The Jets offense is suspect. The Pats' defense is suspect. The Jets' defense can dominate. The Pats' offense can dominate. My concern with NY last week was their offense's tendency to disappear, and their win over Indy didn't show much to combat that feeling. With the Pats scoring over 30+ points in EIGHT STRAIGHT GAMES, I don't see the New York Rexes being able to keep up. Pick: Patriots
From a picks perspective, it certainly could have gone better. As the Write it in Reverse vs. A Shot in the Arm post-season picks challenge continues into it's second week, Steve and I are in a dead heat with matching 2-2 results. Let's reflect briefly on our Wild Card selections before diving into the Divisional round picks.
Wild Card Round:
Seattle over New Orleans
Rob (Pick Saints): When did the Saints' defense take a mid-season course in Houston?
Steve (Pick Saints): I was too chicken to pick this game the way I wanted to; I hate myself for not trusting my instincts.
Jets over Colts
Rob (Pick Colts): After the Colts went up by only 2 with 0:53 remaining, I started rooting for the Jets to win so I could see this face.
Steve (Pick Jets): I LOVE THE PEYTON MANNING POUTY FACE!!!! HAHAHAHAHAHA, EAT IT, JOHNSTONE!
Ravens over Chiefs
Steve (Pick Ravens): Ravens = Nelson, Chiefs = Milhouse
Rob (Pick Ravens): Steve and I were in complete agreement on this game.
Packers over Eagles
Steve (Pick Eagles): I have never been happier to lose a bet/pick in my life.
Rob (Pick Packers): It feels good to be right about the Packers' defense making a play to win the game...even if I was horribly wrong about the score.
Let's move on to the Divisional Playoff Round where the battle of infrequently read bloggers continues! And look for next week's picks and recap back on A Shot in the Arm.
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers (-3)
Rob's Take: Like most "experts" I am expecting a bullish, low-scoring GRIND on Saturday afternoon (Over/Under of 37). These two teams combined for 8 losses and only 1 was against a non-playoff team. This is a heavyweight bout. What makes this Rubber Match even cooler is that the total score for both teams this season is 27 in their match ups. Something has to give. In a game that could go either way, give me the points. Pick: Ravens
Steve's Take: I think this is definitely the hardest game to pick. This is essentially a coin flip scenario for me. I decided that I trust The Rapist more than Flacco. I also think the week off may have given the Steelers a chance to work on some of their offensive line problems. Pick: Steelers
Green Bay @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Falcons (-2.5)
Rob's Take: Round 1 of this match up proved to be worth every dime as Atlanta's starting QB Matty Ice led the Falcons to a late victory. The Falcons have been downright nasty at home... posting a record of 20-4 since 2008 (Two of those losses without Matt Ryan playing). The Packers defense is getting better every week. After they allowed 20+ points in 5 of the first 7 games, they have locked down opponents, allowing more than an Andrew Jackson only twice in their last 10. My biggest concern is the offensive mistakes the Packers can make (drops, penalties, fumbles), but that concern is not enough. Give me the Pack and the points. Plus, I have to take the Packers because it worked last week. Pick: Green Bay
Steve's Take: It worked last week. Pick: Falcons
Seattle Seahawks @ Chicago Bears
Line: Bears (-10)
Steve's Take: I have no idea what to make of this game. Matt Hasselbeck apparently took steroids during his week off and rejuvenated his career. Pete Carroll showed why he has been considered a great coach for the past decade. And I’m not buying any of it. The Cardinals made me look foolish 2 years ago when they went to the Super Bowl after an unimpressive 9-7 regular season, but I refuse to take this Seattle team on the road...even if they keep coming back to bite me for my stubbornness. I think a lot of people might jump on Seattle after last week, but I am cautious of overreacting. Also: Bears Defense > Saints Defense. Seattle isn’t scoring 41 against Urlacher and Co. Pick: Bears
Rob's Take: Here we go again. Another game for the Seahawks, another HUGE line against them. They are definitely a different team at home as noted by their Seismic Support in Seattle. The 'Hawks won all of 2 road games this season, and one was against the Bears. I think that the Bears are offensively challenged enough to keep this under a 10 point difference. Will the Bears be victim to another catastrophic upset? No. But they only won 4 games by more than 10 points this year and two of those were against the ViQueens. Pick: Seahawks
NY Jets @ New England Patriots
Line: Patriots (-8.5)
Steve's Take: Everyone remembers the Patriots’ dismantling of the Jets in their last meeting. It was an embarrassing game. I stopped watching it by halftime, when it was clear that “Bad Sanchise” had come to play for the Jets. I feel pretty lucky to have won with the Jets on the road last week, and it’s dangerous to bet against the Patriots. But 8.5 is a lot of points to give when the Jets still boast a top-10 defense. I think they keep it close enough to cover the spread. Pick: Jets
Rob's Take: More intriguing re-matches! In the AFC's second Rubber Match, the New England Belichicks are looking to shut up Rex Ryan for the remainder of the season. The Jets offense is suspect. The Pats' defense is suspect. The Jets' defense can dominate. The Pats' offense can dominate. My concern with NY last week was their offense's tendency to disappear, and their win over Indy didn't show much to combat that feeling. With the Pats scoring over 30+ points in EIGHT STRAIGHT GAMES, I don't see the New York Rexes being able to keep up. Pick: Patriots
Tuesday, January 4, 2011
The Bullet-Less4: The Contest of Insignificance WrapUp
The Holidays are over. People are "fully refreshed" and back to work. Santa is back in Hibernation (that's what he does, right? I mean the guy is all the rage for 6 weeks a year, then disappears). The final week of the NFL Regular Season has come and gone. The Packers cracked into the Playoffs in dramatic fashion. Awesome. Yet, instead of talking about my beloved team (I will save that for later), it's time to bring closure to a new game that has captivated my heart for the last 4 months: The Contest of Insignificance. First, let me apologize for not providing the aforementioned weekly updates. Now, here are the Bullet-Less4 to recap the game, in reverse order of importance.
Teaser bets truly live up to their rightful name. For those that are in the dark on "teaser bets," they require you to bet 3 games together, but add either 6 points or 10 points in your favor on each of the spreads for those games. However, you now have to get all three right to win. So you improve your lines, but need to get all three correct. For sh*ts and giggles I decided to see how I would have done in the early stages of the NFL season using teaser lines and the top 3 games I chose from the Contest of Insignificance. Had I put real money on the line, I would have lost 5 of the first 6 weeks...yuck. Very thankful that I didn't do teaser bets in 2010.
The people that set the NFL point spreads in Vegas are soothsayers. I was forced to pick 85 different lines all season long and can only remember three occasions where I said to myself, "If I were in Vegas, I would bet a house on this." Most of the time I was shocked how often the lines were within 1-3 points of the actual outcome. Food For Thought...those House-Betting games were:
NYJ -5.5 @ BUF in Week 4 when Buffalo was looking like a legit 14 game loser
PHI -3 @ WAS in Week 10, aka THE Michael Vick Fantasy Jamboree Game
DAL +12 @ PHI in Week 17 with Vick and other Eagles resting for the playoffs
It helps to have a rival or head-to-head side game within the game. The beauty of the Contest of Insignificance is that it is a season long test of one's gambling prowess. However, you need some type of motivation in weeks 15-17 when you have no shot at winning because one person (Stupid Steve L.) is competing at a level worthy of a $5k prize in the real Hilton Super Contest. My motivation was holding onto 3rd place over my long time Fantasy Foe and Friend, Steve Fenster. As you will see below in the Final Standings, I was able to do just that.
Finally, and most importantly, gambling (and this game in particular) is as fun as all get up. I loved participating in the Contest of Insignificance all-season. Our inaugural year featured merely six players, but we are expecting somewhere between 15-20 for the 2011 Season (knock on wood, pending the lockout). On a weekly basis I found myself strangely engaged with the scores from games in Oakland, Houston or Jacksonville. Games of which I NEVER (repeat, NEVER) would have cared about before. Many say that Fantasy Football makes you follow the NFL more. I definitely agree. However, this game caused me to care more about the NFL and follow the entire league (not just the players). It also made me ruthless. I would find out a starting Quarterback or Linebacker was injured and BAM, pick the opposing team. It's not personal kids, it's gambling.
Final Results:
Standings
Name W L T PTS Fake Winnings (Based on fake $25/game)
1 Steve L 49 31 5 103 +$327.50
2 Mike 46 37 2 94 +$110.00
3 Rob 44 37 4 92 +$65.00
4 Steve F 43 38 4 90 +$17.50
5 Craig 38 41 6 82 -$170.00
6 *Aaron 25 55 5 55 -$12.50
*Did not complete weeks 4, 13-17
Teaser bets truly live up to their rightful name. For those that are in the dark on "teaser bets," they require you to bet 3 games together, but add either 6 points or 10 points in your favor on each of the spreads for those games. However, you now have to get all three right to win. So you improve your lines, but need to get all three correct. For sh*ts and giggles I decided to see how I would have done in the early stages of the NFL season using teaser lines and the top 3 games I chose from the Contest of Insignificance. Had I put real money on the line, I would have lost 5 of the first 6 weeks...yuck. Very thankful that I didn't do teaser bets in 2010.
The people that set the NFL point spreads in Vegas are soothsayers. I was forced to pick 85 different lines all season long and can only remember three occasions where I said to myself, "If I were in Vegas, I would bet a house on this." Most of the time I was shocked how often the lines were within 1-3 points of the actual outcome. Food For Thought...those House-Betting games were:
NYJ -5.5 @ BUF in Week 4 when Buffalo was looking like a legit 14 game loser
PHI -3 @ WAS in Week 10, aka THE Michael Vick Fantasy Jamboree Game
DAL +12 @ PHI in Week 17 with Vick and other Eagles resting for the playoffs
It helps to have a rival or head-to-head side game within the game. The beauty of the Contest of Insignificance is that it is a season long test of one's gambling prowess. However, you need some type of motivation in weeks 15-17 when you have no shot at winning because one person (Stupid Steve L.) is competing at a level worthy of a $5k prize in the real Hilton Super Contest. My motivation was holding onto 3rd place over my long time Fantasy Foe and Friend, Steve Fenster. As you will see below in the Final Standings, I was able to do just that.
Finally, and most importantly, gambling (and this game in particular) is as fun as all get up. I loved participating in the Contest of Insignificance all-season. Our inaugural year featured merely six players, but we are expecting somewhere between 15-20 for the 2011 Season (knock on wood, pending the lockout). On a weekly basis I found myself strangely engaged with the scores from games in Oakland, Houston or Jacksonville. Games of which I NEVER (repeat, NEVER) would have cared about before. Many say that Fantasy Football makes you follow the NFL more. I definitely agree. However, this game caused me to care more about the NFL and follow the entire league (not just the players). It also made me ruthless. I would find out a starting Quarterback or Linebacker was injured and BAM, pick the opposing team. It's not personal kids, it's gambling.
Final Results:
Standings
Name W L T PTS Fake Winnings (Based on fake $25/game)
1 Steve L 49 31 5 103 +$327.50
2 Mike 46 37 2 94 +$110.00
3 Rob 44 37 4 92 +$65.00
4 Steve F 43 38 4 90 +$17.50
5 Craig 38 41 6 82 -$170.00
6 *Aaron 25 55 5 55 -$12.50
*Did not complete weeks 4, 13-17
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