The Bullet-Less4: The Contest of Insignificance WrapUp

The Holidays are over. People are "fully refreshed" and back to work. Santa is back in Hibernation (that's what he does, right? I mean the guy is all the rage for 6 weeks a year, then disappears). The final week of the NFL Regular Season has come and gone. The Packers cracked into the Playoffs in dramatic fashion. Awesome. Yet, instead of talking about my beloved team (I will save that for later), it's time to bring closure to a new game that has captivated my heart for the last 4 months: The Contest of Insignificance. First, let me apologize for not providing the aforementioned weekly updates. Now, here are the Bullet-Less4 to recap the game, in reverse order of importance.



Teaser bets truly live up to their rightful name. For those that are in the dark on "teaser bets," they require you to bet 3 games together, but add either 6 points or 10 points in your favor on each of the spreads for those games. However, you now have to get all three right to win. So you improve your lines, but need to get all three correct. For sh*ts and giggles I decided to see how I would have done in the early stages of the NFL season using teaser lines and the top 3 games I chose from the Contest of Insignificance. Had I put real money on the line, I would have lost 5 of the first 6 weeks...yuck. Very thankful that I didn't do teaser bets in 2010.



The people that set the NFL point spreads in Vegas are soothsayers. I was forced to pick 85 different lines all season long and can only remember three occasions where I said to myself, "If I were in Vegas, I would bet a house on this." Most of the time I was shocked how often the lines were within 1-3 points of the actual outcome. Food For Thought...those House-Betting games were:
NYJ -5.5 @ BUF in Week 4 when Buffalo was looking like a legit 14 game loser
PHI -3 @ WAS in Week 10, aka THE Michael Vick Fantasy Jamboree Game
DAL +12 @ PHI in Week 17 with Vick and other Eagles resting for the playoffs




It helps to have a rival or head-to-head side game within the game. The beauty of the Contest of Insignificance is that it is a season long test of one's gambling prowess. However, you need some type of motivation in weeks 15-17 when you have no shot at winning because one person (Stupid Steve L.) is competing at a level worthy of a $5k prize in the real Hilton Super Contest. My motivation was holding onto 3rd place over my long time Fantasy Foe and Friend, Steve Fenster. As you will see below in the Final Standings, I was able to do just that.




Finally, and most importantly, gambling (and this game in particular) is as fun as all get up. I loved participating in the Contest of Insignificance all-season. Our inaugural year featured merely six players, but we are expecting somewhere between 15-20 for the 2011 Season (knock on wood, pending the lockout). On a weekly basis I found myself strangely engaged with the scores from games in Oakland, Houston or Jacksonville. Games of which I NEVER (repeat, NEVER) would have cared about before. Many say that Fantasy Football makes you follow the NFL more. I definitely agree. However, this game caused me to care more about the NFL and follow the entire league (not just the players). It also made me ruthless. I would find out a starting Quarterback or Linebacker was injured and BAM, pick the opposing team. It's not personal kids, it's gambling.

Final Results:

Standings
Name W L T PTS Fake Winnings (Based on fake $25/game)
1 Steve L 49 31 5 103 +$327.50
2 Mike 46 37 2 94 +$110.00
3 Rob 44 37 4 92 +$65.00
4 Steve F 43 38 4 90 +$17.50
5 Craig 38 41 6 82 -$170.00
6 *Aaron 25 55 5 55 -$12.50
*Did not complete weeks 4, 13-17

The Bullet-Less4: NFL Week 12

In the words of the late, great Harry Caray: "Holy Cow." It's already Thanksgiving? What? Where did the last couple of months go? It feels like just days ago I was shaking in glorious anticipation of my friends' visit for the Packers-Jets game at the Meadowlands for Halloween. Now...I sit with visions of turkey and football in my head as a lovely 3-slate game of NFL Games gave me reason to eat and sit around like the Jared of old. With that lovely vision, I give you the Bullet-Less4 NFL Update for Thanksgiving Weekend (And to keep with the theme of the blog, let's do them in reverse order of importance):

The Best Reality Show on TV, the Minnesota Vikings keep entertaining the NFL audience. After my beloved Pack put a GRADE A BEATDOWN on the Queens last Sunday, they fired their child molester-looking coach. I love to see this team battered, embarrassed, and more importantly, irrelevant. It is now safe to say that I officially have no further interest in this program and will direct all of my reality-viewing to House Hunters on HGTV (I clearly don't watch much reality TV and clearly have a girlfriend).

The Obvious Bullet-Less of Bias: The Green Bay Packers were showered in expectations before the season. Five weeks in, they were considered to be in the tank after several season-ending injuries and back-to-back OT losses to Washington and Miami. Eleven weeks in, they are 7-3 and tied for the lead in the NFC North despite the pile up on their IR list. After their last two blowout wins (resulting in the firing of two head coaches), they look strong. I have no idea what to think about their prospects going into December, but know I am in love with our defense. Yes I said our. Anything less than a playoff win would make me a sad panda.

The Contest of Insignificance is getting tighter. After praising our league leader, Steve L, a few weeks ago, he has stumbled enough to give the rest of us hope. The interesting thing is that we all seem to be performing better as a group with 66% of us with better than .500 records. As "the guy tied for 3rd place," I can only hope this goes down to the final weeks. Here are my picks for week 12, starting with one on Thanksgiving to ensure I care about at least one game:
ATL -2.5 v. GB - The Falcons are beasts at home, no question about it. I hate picking against my favorite team, but this is a gambling man's contest.
OAK -3 v. MIA - The Raiders, much to my disappointment (I have $40 on them going <6.5 wins on the season) are decent. Also, the Dolphins have a carousel at QB.
DET +7 v. NE - As I write this, I know I am wrong here because the Pats BLASTED the Lions. I thought that an under rated home team on a short week would be a good bet. Whoops.
PHI - 3 @ CHI - The Eagles have been favored by 3 the last two weeks and I have picked them the last two weeks. I'm going to keep it rolling.
SD +3 @ IND - I was REALLY close to picking DAL +3.5 instead of this game. Dallas did in fact cover, so I hope Pip Rivers doesn't make me eat my words and the Chargers can find a way to keep it close with Indy.

The Best Team in the NFL is...
Honestly, this is impossible to judge. My gut says the AFC is hosting the top teams (Pats/Steelers/Ravens/Jets), but as we have all seen, even when one conference seems dominant, they don't produce the Super Bowl champion. My only prediction at this point is that the final weeks of 2010 will not show us anything different than we have seen. Many experts say that we will see "after Thanksgiving" who the top 2-3 teams are. This year, we will go into January with 5-6 teams that can win the whole thing. Hopefully, we get the same thing next season...or just ANYTHING at all for NFL drama next season (outside of a lockout/strike). Since everyone feels the need to put their pick down on paper, here is mine at this point:
PHILLY vs. NYJ - Vick has Philly looking like a team that is impossible to stop and the Jets are going to be tough to beat with their running game in the cold. Jets 27 - Philly 24.



Buckle up for a great finish to the NFL Season, the Contest of Insignificance, and the end of 2010. As for now, buckle up with friends and family and Happy Turkey to everyone...IN YO' MOUTHS!

The Contest of Insignificance: Week 9

In my last post on the joys of gaming, I promised to post updates regarding my progress in the Contest of Insignificance. While only about 15 people read this (at best), I figured it is better to keep those people entertained than to just quit.

For those of you who are new, here is how it works: We pick 5 games/lines every week to bet against in the NFL. We keep score all season on how well we do against the Vegas spreads. Winner takes all. At $20 a head and a small amount of players, the title of the contest seems appropriate.

Before Week 8's games, I was in 2nd place and felt good about my selections. After Week 8, I was in 4th place and discouraged. Such as life in the world of a guy just looking for a break. It likely doesn't matter how I fare each week, but it's fun to pretend like I can catch Steve L. Read my last post to learn about the real contest and to see how the guy leading our $20 contest would be within spitting distance of the pedestal.

But, the beauty of the NFL is that each week brings new life. Here are my Week 9 picks and how I fared. I know it's Monday and there is still one game left, but I wanted nothing to do with the PIT/CIN game. Nothing in gambling...and likely nothing in viewing.

WEEK 9: 3-1-1 Record - moving me back into a tie for 3rd place.

Pretty solid bounce back week for me after falling under the 50% mark last week. Here is how it broke out...

1) NYG -6 @ SEA. WIN
I rarely feel amazing about my selections. If I were near a casino I would have dumped at least $50 on this line. There has been only 1 other line all season that I felt this good about and that was week 4 in which the Jets were favored by 5.5 at Buffalo. This is when Buffalo couldn't do anything and the Jets were pummeling teams. I said to my friend Steve F: "I would bet a house on this game." I wish I would have done the same with the Giants. They were up 28-0 before I even blinked and destroyed Seattle.

2) TB +8 @ ATL. WIN
Tampa, as I mentioned in my last post, looks strong this season after a pitiful 2009. Atlanta is good, but 8 points was just the right amount of cushion for me. It turned out to be almost the exact cushion Tampa gamblers needed as the Falcons won by 6. Note: Tampa had a shot to win the the game late, but failed to convert on a 4th and 1 play.

3) NYJ -4 @ DET. LOSS
Thanks Jets. Detroit is definitely improving as Stafford is looking like a true starting QB. I thought to myself "no way Rex Ryan (coach of the Jets) allows this team lose to DET this week. They are going to be pissed." The Jets were shut out at home a week earlier by the Packers (a game I was fortunate to be at). I was right, they didn't lose. But they also didn't win by enough - Jets by 3 on the first possession in Overtime.

4) IND +3 @ PHI. WIN
This was nothing but good ol' fashioned luck. This bet seemed too good to be true. Indy as an underdog against an Eagles team that is strong but starting a QB coming off of a rib inury? THROW THE HOUSE AT IT! Better to be lucky than good, right? A sketchy at best unnecessary roughness call on PHI defensive end Trent Cole kept a late Colts drive alive long enough for Peyton to punch in one more TD. See the highlight at about 2:25 here. Philly wins by 2 as they run out the clock. INDY gamblers everywhere rejoice!

5) BUF +3 vs. CHI (In Toronto). TIE
This game was one of those feel good picks that I couldn't avoid. Buffalo had lost two games in a row in OT by 3 points. Chicago was shaky going into their bye week and traveling to an indoor stadium in Canada. Buffalo was winning late in the 4th quarter and trying to put the game away when quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick threw an interception that led to the CHI game winning TD. Apparently 0-8 teams really do find ways to blow games, because Buffalo had an Extra Point blocked and Chicago hit a 2 pt conversion. It changed the entire outcome of the game for the gambling public. Chicago wins 22-19.

SEASON RECORD: 21-21-3

Talk about Even Steven.

The Whipped Cream and Cherry of Football

In a classic Simpsons episode, Homer describes gambling as a way to make something you love even better to his 8-year-old daughter. He uses the ol' "Sundae with whipped cream and cherries" analogy...which, as we all know, is a classic:

Homer: You like ice cream, don't you?
Lisa: Uh huh.
Homer: And don't you like ice cream better when it's covered with hot fudge?
And mounds of whipped cream? [getting carried away] And chopped nuts?
And, ooh, those crumbled-up cookie things they mash up?
Mmm... Crumbled-up cookie things...
Lisa concludes that ``gambling makes a good thing even better.''



I was tempted to use that exact analogy to discuss gambling and the NFL... It is spot on. However, I want to share a statement that sums up how I feel about the topic:

"you know my obsession with sports is a problem when i find ways to make lions @ bills exciting"

My esteemed colleague (and writer of A Shot in the Arm) said the above to me via one of our many IM conversations about football, and more specifically about gambling.

I would say that neither one of us is a gambling addict (except for him), but that each of us would agree 100% that it's an activity that can make pointless things...pointed.

With that, I bring to you The Hilton Supercontest: "Win BIG in the most respected, challenging and prestigious Pro football handicapping contest in the world!" This "contest" pits 300+ people against each other ($1,500/head) in a season-long battle of choosing 5 NFL lines every week. As a gambling addict, Steve had to have a taste. Unfortunately for him, he works in education and can't afford the entrance fee (to be fair neither can I). So, he did the next logical thing possible: Started a friendly $20 game amongst friends.

We have just completed week 7 of what I am deeming the Contest of Insignificance. Appropriately named based on the difference between our prize and the Supercontest Pot of Prizes - roughly $524,880 for those keeping score at home. This thing is driving me bonkers. I have much more money "invested" into Fantasy Football, yet for some reason I found myself recklessly yelling at the TV when Ben Rapelisburger fumbled the ball at the 1 yard line against the Dolphins on Sunday. With about 2:30 remaining in the game, Big Ben ran for the end zone and had the ball knocked loose 6 inches short of the goal line. Pittsburgh was granted the ball after some deliberation and they elected to kick a field goal to take a 1 point lead. Steeler fans rejoice! Their team is winning by 1 point! Meanwhile, I am vomiting in the corner. I NEEDED that Touchdown. A field goal does me no good. Beating Miami by 1 is as good as a loss to me when they are supposed to win by at least 3!
WTF!?!&&*&!

Minutes later, I found myself vested in the Tampa Bay-St. Louis game. This game featured TWO teams that combined for FOUR wins in 2009...teams that were supposed to be terrible in 2010 (they are average right now). This is not a recipe for a game of interest. However, with seconds left in the game, Tampa Bay scored a touchdown to go up by 1 point. I have them selected at -2.5 (meaning they have to win by at least 3 points), so my frustration continues. But wait! Hold the phone! Steve reminds me that the Buccaneers will go for the 2-point conversion instead of the extra point! They have a chance to go up by 3 points! Sadly, they fail (or I fail since Tampa still won the game...by 1 point).
WTF!?!&&*&!

This is what makes the Supercontest (and gambling in general) so great. I could have cared less about the Dolphins and Steelers or Buccaneers and Rams. But, each game was one of my 5 picks for the week. You have to find a way to make it exciting.

Check back for regular updates on my progress through this tumultuous NFL season. As we approach the halfway point, I am just below .500 with 16 wins, 17 losses and 2 ties. The good news is that my record is barely good enough for 2nd place in the Contest of Insignificance. The bad news is that Steve L (yes, a different Steve) is just crushing everyone right now (record: 21-12-2). In fact, that b@st@rd's record would put him in the running for the actual Supercontest in Vegas - the leader has 25 wins.

This just shows us that whoever is making these lines is good at it.

Here are my picks for Week 8:

DEN -even: I just don't see how SF can win without Alex Smith. My gut is crying for me to leave this game alone, but I don't believe in the Troy Smith era. I believe in Frank Gore, but also think it will be hard for SF to run with 14 guys in the box.

TB +3: This pick is solely on how disgusted I am by Arizona this year. Also, TB is showing improvement all the time and manages to keep games close.

PIT -even: New Orleans could easily show up for this game. They don't have a running game and Pittsburgh doesn't allow teams to run...so that's a wash. With Big Ben at the healm, I see enough Pitt O to overcome a potential 45 pass onslaught from Brees.

OAK -2.5: This may be the first game OAK has been favored in all year. I'm too lazy to check, but know that Seattle is about 1/2 the team on the road. Maybe they only bring 1/2 of their players?

DAL +6.5: I was really close to picking Miami+2 here. I may come to eat it. Jacksonville's defense can't stop anyone and I am hoping that gives Kitna the cushion he needs to cover up for his inevitable 2 INT game. The good news? Garrard is bad on the road and hasn't played since his concussion. I like the guy, not the situation.

UPDATE (11/2/10): I went 2-3 this week. That isn't going to cut it.

Dear Football...

Why do I love thee so? Why do I invest my heart and time into you? You don't love me back. You invest nothing into me. You just take...take...take. Oh, Football.

This last Sunday, Football, you crossed the line. For the second straight week you felt it necessary to send my Packers into overtime against a middle of the road team. And for the second straight week, you broke my heart. Three losses in four weeks? It is beginning to get very difficult to trust you, Football.

On top of giving a 3-3 start to the Packers, you have been destroying my favorite football team with injuries. Why would you send 4 starters to the depths of the Injured Reserve list in the first 5 weeks? What did Nick Barnett, Ryan Grant, Jermichael Finley and Morgan Burnett do to you? Why give Aaron Rodgers a concussion? Why tweak at Clay Matthews' hamstring? They have done nothing but give 100% of their life to you. Football, you are starting to piss me off.



As if ruining the Packers' season wasn't enough for you. You just had to take it one step further and start harassing my Fantasy Football teams. It wasn't bad enough that I have two teams at 2-4. You even decided to deliver injuries to BOTH of the starting WRs on my team with a 4-2 record: Malcom Floyd and DeSean Jackson. The latter of whom could be affected for the rest of his life. I invest so much love, time, and passion into you Football. When will I see some love in return? Football, I am angry.

Will I quit on you? No. Will I give up hope? No. I stuck with you through the tough 2005 and 2008 Green Bay seasons where you gave my beloved Packers a combined 8-22 record. I have stuck with you despite the curse you have placed on me in Fantasy Football and the subsequently difficult seasons I have experienced over the last few years. Truthfully, I can't see myself without you every Fall. Sure I can forget about you in Spring during March Madness and Summer when I am running about town. But Fall? Winter? I will always be with you.

Football, you have a chance to do something right! It's only Week 6. You don't have to torment me for the next 14 weeks. You can be better. You can give more to the Packers and take less. You can give breakout seasons to the NFL players on my Fantasy Football rosters. You can prevent the Packers from getting utterly destroyed at the new (DVD Rack) Meadowlands Stadium when 16 of my Packer-supporting friends join me to cheer for our team on Halloween afternoon. You can give me something back!

Dear Football,
I will always love you. But right now, you are really pissing me off.

UPDATE (10/26 - 10:48am): While the below photo was meant to show my anger at you Football, you showed signs of compassion on Sunday night. Feel free to continue that trend through the cold of winter!

Seriously Black Keys...Knock It Off

Ok Ok...I know. I have a total of 5 blog posts, so why use post #6 about a band I have already discussed in this space? Because in one word, they are AWESOME. I only say "Knock it Off," because I shouldn't be compelled to write about one subject so often. Yet here we are.

Since my original review of Brothers from its release week, I have been spinning the disc regularly (and by "spin the disc" I clearly mean "push the digital play button"). You will be happy to know that the disc is still great and I don't feel compelled to stop listening any time soon.

Recently, my esteemed colleague (with a gambling problem), had posted a link accompanied by a selection of ambiguous text: "Pretty sure I never get sick of this song (or the video)." Like I do with most of his links (despite the lack of detail around them), I clicked.

What I was treated to was the official Black Keys' video for the album's single Tighten Up. At this point you have to realize that it is worth watching; simply due to the fact that I have written an entire post about it. With a band like the Black Keys, you don't expect them to come out with amazing videos. To be frank, they don't need to. I already discussed the song's (and album's) qualities here, but they absolutely hit the mark. This video just rules. I will let you watch NOW...feel free to come back to read my highlights when you are done with your music video homework.

The Black Keys - Tighten Up - Official Video from Chris Marrs Piliero on Vimeo.

The Highlights:

1) I love, love, love watching kids lip synch adult songs. The kid with the glasses absolutely ruled at it with my favorite part at about 2:12
2) The kid with the glasses (aka tiny Patrick Carney) reminds me a TON of this famous Sports movie character:

3) Simply put, the reaction of Dan Auerbach at 2:18 as his kid punches Carney's kid.
4) Then, as Auerbach and Carney attempt to break up the fight (finally), who doesn't love watching a group of kids beat on some adults. Awesome.
5) Auerbach absolutely just tosses a kid on the ground at 2:59 as he begins to gawk at the babe.

It's a side I love to see from the Black Keys. You know they aren't taking themselves too seriously, but are seriously good at what they do. A comedic, light-hearted music video doesn't seem like an avenue they would have explored, but I am certainly glad that they did. If you haven't gotten acquainted yet with Brothers, give it a try. However, in the words of the great Bob Slydell, "I celebrate this [band's] entire catalog," so you should give any of their discs a whirl. And if you haven't gotten into one of my favorite bands at this point, I will be forced to (yet again) try to convince you in the next 5-7 posts.

New Buzz Word Has Been Around For Centuries

Over the course of the past 3-5 years, our society has taken an interesting turn. (Maybe I should say American society - because I have not been elsewhere to experience it, but my gut tells me that Europe, Asia, Australia are in on the fun.) The younger half of the world has become obsessed with the need to tell everyone where they are, what they are doing, what they are feeling, and whether or not they should have "eaten that burrito for lunch."

With tweets, status updates, foursquare, myspace-ing (yes, it still exists), checking in, and an upcoming movie, it is safe to say that "social currency" is more than a buzz word, but a way of life.

I personally LOVE the term social currency. What better way to define one's popularity or interest to the world? It just rolls off the tongue...social...currency. Within the world of media/marketing, social currency is a buzz word - one that major brands are after on a daily basis. In fact, advertising agencies and marketers have invested millions of dollars into enhancing their product or brand's SOCIAL CURRENCY. Man, it just sounds cool doesn't it? Social is Fun. Currency is Money. FUN MONEY!?

While the term is relatively new, there is already a trademarked company and a Wikipedia definition:

"a common term that can be understood as the entirety of actual and potential resources which arise from the presence in social networks and communities, may they be digital or offline. It derives from Pierre Bourdieu’s social capital theory and is about increasing one’s sense of community, granting access to information and knowledge, helping to form one’s identity, and providing status and recognition."

Yet, the concept of social currency has been around for centuries. If you read further into the Wikipedia definition (no matter how poorly written it is), the site notes that social currency is "information shared which encourages further social encounters. It can be a factor in establishing fans of sports or television programs...However these types of fans can easily move to a new sport, team, or program in the future if the new one offers more social currency."

Does anyone see a difference between this and the lunch room in middle school? You are popular one week, and not the next. If you offer something to the group, the group will accept you, but if another offering is better, the group moves on. In fact, the band-wagon fans of the world should be 100% familiar with this concept (cough-Vikings-cough-LA teams-cough). Provide something to rally around, and we will remain loyal. It's a simple concept.

This is why marketers, media companies, and ad agencies are tripping over themselves to enhance the social currency of their brand EVERY day. Some companies are doing a great job of delivering value to their social followings (fans/followers/whatever). One example in New York City/New Jersey is The Lite Choice. This company offers all Twitter followers a special coupon code EVERY DAY for a discount/deal at their frozen yogurt shops. Every time I am remotely interested in the thought of FroYo (in fact this post is driving up said interest), I check the TLC deal of the day. As a fan or follower, I can then make it "Social" be re-sharing with my friends. Done. Simple.

On the flip side, some companies are struggling mightily with this concept. I cannot reveal the company name, but I had one person that works for a Fortune 100 company in the media/marketing industry tell me something close to the following:

"Great. I have 500 fans. What does that even mean for my company, my brand? What are we supposed to be doing with those fans? Am I supposed to invest resources towards this fan page?"

I was appalled. If a marketer needs to ask what to do with 500 people that have RAISED THEIR HANDS as fans of a brand/product/service, then someone is clearly missing the boat on social currency. It should be pretty obvious, pretty low-cost re-marketing. In fact, that someone should be demoted or maybe moved to a project that doesn't involve the big, scary internet.



Here we stand. We have a fancy buzz word, a society hell bent on telling people what they ate for breakfast, and a slew of marketers trying to solve the social currency question. I am excited by what social currency means to the world of media/marketers and the benefits it is bringing to consumers - aka frozen yogurt discounts. However, I know for a fact that there are people out there with "social marketing" in their job title. I have met them. Isn't it funny that a concept that originated around the lunch room, something understood by band wagon fans all across America, has spawned a slew of careers and job titles? It's time that social marketing and/or currency is not seen as a separate function with unnecessary job titles. It is marketing.