To the 16 readers out there...
My embarrassing showing in the Battle of Infrequently Read Bloggers for NFL Picks Supremacy is on the road this week. You can follow the competition at Steve's blog: A Shot in the Arm. We will make our final NFL appearance back here for the Super Bowl, at which point Steve will probably be victorious and rubbing his victory in my face.
Thursday, January 20, 2011
Tuesday, January 11, 2011
Playoff Picks Challenge | Week 2 with Guest Blogger!
What a first weekend of NFL Playoff Football! From the Seahawks' shocking upset of the Saints, to the Cardiac Pack living up to their well deserved nickname, I couldn't have been more pleased with the games last weekend (sorry Chiefs' fans) from a fan standpoint (Note: Had the Packers lost, the tone of this post would have been drastically different).
From a picks perspective, it certainly could have gone better. As the Write it in Reverse vs. A Shot in the Arm post-season picks challenge continues into it's second week, Steve and I are in a dead heat with matching 2-2 results. Let's reflect briefly on our Wild Card selections before diving into the Divisional round picks.
Wild Card Round:
Seattle over New Orleans
Rob (Pick Saints): When did the Saints' defense take a mid-season course in Houston?
Steve (Pick Saints): I was too chicken to pick this game the way I wanted to; I hate myself for not trusting my instincts.
Jets over Colts
Rob (Pick Colts): After the Colts went up by only 2 with 0:53 remaining, I started rooting for the Jets to win so I could see this face.
Steve (Pick Jets): I LOVE THE PEYTON MANNING POUTY FACE!!!! HAHAHAHAHAHA, EAT IT, JOHNSTONE!
Ravens over Chiefs
Steve (Pick Ravens): Ravens = Nelson, Chiefs = Milhouse
Rob (Pick Ravens): Steve and I were in complete agreement on this game.
Packers over Eagles
Steve (Pick Eagles): I have never been happier to lose a bet/pick in my life.
Rob (Pick Packers): It feels good to be right about the Packers' defense making a play to win the game...even if I was horribly wrong about the score.
Let's move on to the Divisional Playoff Round where the battle of infrequently read bloggers continues! And look for next week's picks and recap back on A Shot in the Arm.
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers (-3)
Rob's Take: Like most "experts" I am expecting a bullish, low-scoring GRIND on Saturday afternoon (Over/Under of 37). These two teams combined for 8 losses and only 1 was against a non-playoff team. This is a heavyweight bout. What makes this Rubber Match even cooler is that the total score for both teams this season is 27 in their match ups. Something has to give. In a game that could go either way, give me the points. Pick: Ravens
Steve's Take: I think this is definitely the hardest game to pick. This is essentially a coin flip scenario for me. I decided that I trust The Rapist more than Flacco. I also think the week off may have given the Steelers a chance to work on some of their offensive line problems. Pick: Steelers
Green Bay @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Falcons (-2.5)
Rob's Take: Round 1 of this match up proved to be worth every dime as Atlanta's starting QB Matty Ice led the Falcons to a late victory. The Falcons have been downright nasty at home... posting a record of 20-4 since 2008 (Two of those losses without Matt Ryan playing). The Packers defense is getting better every week. After they allowed 20+ points in 5 of the first 7 games, they have locked down opponents, allowing more than an Andrew Jackson only twice in their last 10. My biggest concern is the offensive mistakes the Packers can make (drops, penalties, fumbles), but that concern is not enough. Give me the Pack and the points. Plus, I have to take the Packers because it worked last week. Pick: Green Bay
Steve's Take: It worked last week. Pick: Falcons
Seattle Seahawks @ Chicago Bears
Line: Bears (-10)
Steve's Take: I have no idea what to make of this game. Matt Hasselbeck apparently took steroids during his week off and rejuvenated his career. Pete Carroll showed why he has been considered a great coach for the past decade. And I’m not buying any of it. The Cardinals made me look foolish 2 years ago when they went to the Super Bowl after an unimpressive 9-7 regular season, but I refuse to take this Seattle team on the road...even if they keep coming back to bite me for my stubbornness. I think a lot of people might jump on Seattle after last week, but I am cautious of overreacting. Also: Bears Defense > Saints Defense. Seattle isn’t scoring 41 against Urlacher and Co. Pick: Bears
Rob's Take: Here we go again. Another game for the Seahawks, another HUGE line against them. They are definitely a different team at home as noted by their Seismic Support in Seattle. The 'Hawks won all of 2 road games this season, and one was against the Bears. I think that the Bears are offensively challenged enough to keep this under a 10 point difference. Will the Bears be victim to another catastrophic upset? No. But they only won 4 games by more than 10 points this year and two of those were against the ViQueens. Pick: Seahawks
NY Jets @ New England Patriots
Line: Patriots (-8.5)
Steve's Take: Everyone remembers the Patriots’ dismantling of the Jets in their last meeting. It was an embarrassing game. I stopped watching it by halftime, when it was clear that “Bad Sanchise” had come to play for the Jets. I feel pretty lucky to have won with the Jets on the road last week, and it’s dangerous to bet against the Patriots. But 8.5 is a lot of points to give when the Jets still boast a top-10 defense. I think they keep it close enough to cover the spread. Pick: Jets
Rob's Take: More intriguing re-matches! In the AFC's second Rubber Match, the New England Belichicks are looking to shut up Rex Ryan for the remainder of the season. The Jets offense is suspect. The Pats' defense is suspect. The Jets' defense can dominate. The Pats' offense can dominate. My concern with NY last week was their offense's tendency to disappear, and their win over Indy didn't show much to combat that feeling. With the Pats scoring over 30+ points in EIGHT STRAIGHT GAMES, I don't see the New York Rexes being able to keep up. Pick: Patriots
From a picks perspective, it certainly could have gone better. As the Write it in Reverse vs. A Shot in the Arm post-season picks challenge continues into it's second week, Steve and I are in a dead heat with matching 2-2 results. Let's reflect briefly on our Wild Card selections before diving into the Divisional round picks.
Wild Card Round:
Seattle over New Orleans
Rob (Pick Saints): When did the Saints' defense take a mid-season course in Houston?
Steve (Pick Saints): I was too chicken to pick this game the way I wanted to; I hate myself for not trusting my instincts.
Jets over Colts
Rob (Pick Colts): After the Colts went up by only 2 with 0:53 remaining, I started rooting for the Jets to win so I could see this face.
Steve (Pick Jets): I LOVE THE PEYTON MANNING POUTY FACE!!!! HAHAHAHAHAHA, EAT IT, JOHNSTONE!
Ravens over Chiefs
Steve (Pick Ravens): Ravens = Nelson, Chiefs = Milhouse
Rob (Pick Ravens): Steve and I were in complete agreement on this game.
Packers over Eagles
Steve (Pick Eagles): I have never been happier to lose a bet/pick in my life.
Rob (Pick Packers): It feels good to be right about the Packers' defense making a play to win the game...even if I was horribly wrong about the score.
Let's move on to the Divisional Playoff Round where the battle of infrequently read bloggers continues! And look for next week's picks and recap back on A Shot in the Arm.
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Steelers (-3)
Rob's Take: Like most "experts" I am expecting a bullish, low-scoring GRIND on Saturday afternoon (Over/Under of 37). These two teams combined for 8 losses and only 1 was against a non-playoff team. This is a heavyweight bout. What makes this Rubber Match even cooler is that the total score for both teams this season is 27 in their match ups. Something has to give. In a game that could go either way, give me the points. Pick: Ravens
Steve's Take: I think this is definitely the hardest game to pick. This is essentially a coin flip scenario for me. I decided that I trust The Rapist more than Flacco. I also think the week off may have given the Steelers a chance to work on some of their offensive line problems. Pick: Steelers
Green Bay @ Atlanta Falcons
Line: Falcons (-2.5)
Rob's Take: Round 1 of this match up proved to be worth every dime as Atlanta's starting QB Matty Ice led the Falcons to a late victory. The Falcons have been downright nasty at home... posting a record of 20-4 since 2008 (Two of those losses without Matt Ryan playing). The Packers defense is getting better every week. After they allowed 20+ points in 5 of the first 7 games, they have locked down opponents, allowing more than an Andrew Jackson only twice in their last 10. My biggest concern is the offensive mistakes the Packers can make (drops, penalties, fumbles), but that concern is not enough. Give me the Pack and the points. Plus, I have to take the Packers because it worked last week. Pick: Green Bay
Steve's Take: It worked last week. Pick: Falcons
Seattle Seahawks @ Chicago Bears
Line: Bears (-10)
Steve's Take: I have no idea what to make of this game. Matt Hasselbeck apparently took steroids during his week off and rejuvenated his career. Pete Carroll showed why he has been considered a great coach for the past decade. And I’m not buying any of it. The Cardinals made me look foolish 2 years ago when they went to the Super Bowl after an unimpressive 9-7 regular season, but I refuse to take this Seattle team on the road...even if they keep coming back to bite me for my stubbornness. I think a lot of people might jump on Seattle after last week, but I am cautious of overreacting. Also: Bears Defense > Saints Defense. Seattle isn’t scoring 41 against Urlacher and Co. Pick: Bears
Rob's Take: Here we go again. Another game for the Seahawks, another HUGE line against them. They are definitely a different team at home as noted by their Seismic Support in Seattle. The 'Hawks won all of 2 road games this season, and one was against the Bears. I think that the Bears are offensively challenged enough to keep this under a 10 point difference. Will the Bears be victim to another catastrophic upset? No. But they only won 4 games by more than 10 points this year and two of those were against the ViQueens. Pick: Seahawks
NY Jets @ New England Patriots
Line: Patriots (-8.5)
Steve's Take: Everyone remembers the Patriots’ dismantling of the Jets in their last meeting. It was an embarrassing game. I stopped watching it by halftime, when it was clear that “Bad Sanchise” had come to play for the Jets. I feel pretty lucky to have won with the Jets on the road last week, and it’s dangerous to bet against the Patriots. But 8.5 is a lot of points to give when the Jets still boast a top-10 defense. I think they keep it close enough to cover the spread. Pick: Jets
Rob's Take: More intriguing re-matches! In the AFC's second Rubber Match, the New England Belichicks are looking to shut up Rex Ryan for the remainder of the season. The Jets offense is suspect. The Pats' defense is suspect. The Jets' defense can dominate. The Pats' offense can dominate. My concern with NY last week was their offense's tendency to disappear, and their win over Indy didn't show much to combat that feeling. With the Pats scoring over 30+ points in EIGHT STRAIGHT GAMES, I don't see the New York Rexes being able to keep up. Pick: Patriots
Tuesday, January 4, 2011
The Bullet-Less4: The Contest of Insignificance WrapUp
The Holidays are over. People are "fully refreshed" and back to work. Santa is back in Hibernation (that's what he does, right? I mean the guy is all the rage for 6 weeks a year, then disappears). The final week of the NFL Regular Season has come and gone. The Packers cracked into the Playoffs in dramatic fashion. Awesome. Yet, instead of talking about my beloved team (I will save that for later), it's time to bring closure to a new game that has captivated my heart for the last 4 months: The Contest of Insignificance. First, let me apologize for not providing the aforementioned weekly updates. Now, here are the Bullet-Less4 to recap the game, in reverse order of importance.
Teaser bets truly live up to their rightful name. For those that are in the dark on "teaser bets," they require you to bet 3 games together, but add either 6 points or 10 points in your favor on each of the spreads for those games. However, you now have to get all three right to win. So you improve your lines, but need to get all three correct. For sh*ts and giggles I decided to see how I would have done in the early stages of the NFL season using teaser lines and the top 3 games I chose from the Contest of Insignificance. Had I put real money on the line, I would have lost 5 of the first 6 weeks...yuck. Very thankful that I didn't do teaser bets in 2010.
The people that set the NFL point spreads in Vegas are soothsayers. I was forced to pick 85 different lines all season long and can only remember three occasions where I said to myself, "If I were in Vegas, I would bet a house on this." Most of the time I was shocked how often the lines were within 1-3 points of the actual outcome. Food For Thought...those House-Betting games were:
NYJ -5.5 @ BUF in Week 4 when Buffalo was looking like a legit 14 game loser
PHI -3 @ WAS in Week 10, aka THE Michael Vick Fantasy Jamboree Game
DAL +12 @ PHI in Week 17 with Vick and other Eagles resting for the playoffs
It helps to have a rival or head-to-head side game within the game. The beauty of the Contest of Insignificance is that it is a season long test of one's gambling prowess. However, you need some type of motivation in weeks 15-17 when you have no shot at winning because one person (Stupid Steve L.) is competing at a level worthy of a $5k prize in the real Hilton Super Contest. My motivation was holding onto 3rd place over my long time Fantasy Foe and Friend, Steve Fenster. As you will see below in the Final Standings, I was able to do just that.
Finally, and most importantly, gambling (and this game in particular) is as fun as all get up. I loved participating in the Contest of Insignificance all-season. Our inaugural year featured merely six players, but we are expecting somewhere between 15-20 for the 2011 Season (knock on wood, pending the lockout). On a weekly basis I found myself strangely engaged with the scores from games in Oakland, Houston or Jacksonville. Games of which I NEVER (repeat, NEVER) would have cared about before. Many say that Fantasy Football makes you follow the NFL more. I definitely agree. However, this game caused me to care more about the NFL and follow the entire league (not just the players). It also made me ruthless. I would find out a starting Quarterback or Linebacker was injured and BAM, pick the opposing team. It's not personal kids, it's gambling.
Final Results:
Standings
Name W L T PTS Fake Winnings (Based on fake $25/game)
1 Steve L 49 31 5 103 +$327.50
2 Mike 46 37 2 94 +$110.00
3 Rob 44 37 4 92 +$65.00
4 Steve F 43 38 4 90 +$17.50
5 Craig 38 41 6 82 -$170.00
6 *Aaron 25 55 5 55 -$12.50
*Did not complete weeks 4, 13-17
Teaser bets truly live up to their rightful name. For those that are in the dark on "teaser bets," they require you to bet 3 games together, but add either 6 points or 10 points in your favor on each of the spreads for those games. However, you now have to get all three right to win. So you improve your lines, but need to get all three correct. For sh*ts and giggles I decided to see how I would have done in the early stages of the NFL season using teaser lines and the top 3 games I chose from the Contest of Insignificance. Had I put real money on the line, I would have lost 5 of the first 6 weeks...yuck. Very thankful that I didn't do teaser bets in 2010.
The people that set the NFL point spreads in Vegas are soothsayers. I was forced to pick 85 different lines all season long and can only remember three occasions where I said to myself, "If I were in Vegas, I would bet a house on this." Most of the time I was shocked how often the lines were within 1-3 points of the actual outcome. Food For Thought...those House-Betting games were:
NYJ -5.5 @ BUF in Week 4 when Buffalo was looking like a legit 14 game loser
PHI -3 @ WAS in Week 10, aka THE Michael Vick Fantasy Jamboree Game
DAL +12 @ PHI in Week 17 with Vick and other Eagles resting for the playoffs
It helps to have a rival or head-to-head side game within the game. The beauty of the Contest of Insignificance is that it is a season long test of one's gambling prowess. However, you need some type of motivation in weeks 15-17 when you have no shot at winning because one person (Stupid Steve L.) is competing at a level worthy of a $5k prize in the real Hilton Super Contest. My motivation was holding onto 3rd place over my long time Fantasy Foe and Friend, Steve Fenster. As you will see below in the Final Standings, I was able to do just that.
Finally, and most importantly, gambling (and this game in particular) is as fun as all get up. I loved participating in the Contest of Insignificance all-season. Our inaugural year featured merely six players, but we are expecting somewhere between 15-20 for the 2011 Season (knock on wood, pending the lockout). On a weekly basis I found myself strangely engaged with the scores from games in Oakland, Houston or Jacksonville. Games of which I NEVER (repeat, NEVER) would have cared about before. Many say that Fantasy Football makes you follow the NFL more. I definitely agree. However, this game caused me to care more about the NFL and follow the entire league (not just the players). It also made me ruthless. I would find out a starting Quarterback or Linebacker was injured and BAM, pick the opposing team. It's not personal kids, it's gambling.
Final Results:
Standings
Name W L T PTS Fake Winnings (Based on fake $25/game)
1 Steve L 49 31 5 103 +$327.50
2 Mike 46 37 2 94 +$110.00
3 Rob 44 37 4 92 +$65.00
4 Steve F 43 38 4 90 +$17.50
5 Craig 38 41 6 82 -$170.00
6 *Aaron 25 55 5 55 -$12.50
*Did not complete weeks 4, 13-17
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