Tuesday, February 1, 2011

Super Bowl Week and the Playoff Picks Finale

Let's get something straight. I couldn't be happier that the Packers are playing in the Super Bowl. It is a treat to experience your favorite team fighting for 5 months to get to the ultimate stage in Sports. However, this is new territory for my nerves, for my anxiety and for my heart. When the Packers were last in the Super Bowl, I was 16 years old. I had yet to invest so many Sunday trips to Packer bars in Minneapolis, West Los Angeles and New York to watch my beloved team. After a week of recycled stories and Super Bowl coverage, Sunday cannot come soon enough. I am on edge. I am getting angry at even the thought of having to watch the game with non-football or non-Packer fans. That isn't me? I love Super Bowl parties for the food, socialization, etc, etc. Right now, part of me wants to sit in a room, alone, with a bucket of wings and a case of some WI beer on Sunday night.

What I need right now is a healthy list of distractions. My great friend Ryno will be visiting me in New York City this weekend. I am counting on that getting me from Thursday to Sunday. He doesn't know it yet, but I am absolutely using him as a way to keep me from melting down before kickoff on Sunday night. Until Thursday night, however, I am shifting my focus back to the Battle of Infrequently Read Bloggers with Steve Fenster from A Shot in the Arm.

If you need a recap on each round to get caught up, feel free to browse:
Wild Card
Divisional Playoff
Championship Games

Talk about the perfect drama. After making our picks over the course of 3 weeks and 10 games, Steve takes a 1-game lead into the Big One. Here are the records:

Steve: 6-4
Rob: 5-5

INTENSE STARE DOWN!!!


With only the Super Bowl remaining, I can still push this contest into a tiebreaker. Before we dig into our picks, let's touch on a few of our favorite Prop Bets for the Super Bowl.

How many players will get arrested during Super Bowl week (over/under .5)

Honestly, neither of us would really bet on this. It's simply hilarious that a Sports Book would actually list this as a possible bet. Especially since they did not phrase the question as "will a player get arrested?" but instead "how many?" Faaaaantastic.

Will a team score three times in a row (no; +125)

Steve and I disagree here. Steve's Take: I wouldn't take this. For only one reason. I listened to a podcast featuring the head of the Hilton Sports Book in Vegas, and when asked which prop to pay attention to, he mentioned this one as a prop that tons of fans think seems like a no-brainer and lose on. I trust the man who invented the Super Contest. Readers Beware! My take: I'm the illogical guy. I feel like these two defenses are better than the average seen in recent Super Bowls. The only thing that worries me here is a special teams big play...and neither team is particularly strong in that department. I would put $20 or $50 on this.

Ben Roethlisberger MVP (+350)
Steve's Take: If you like the Steelers in this game, your moneyline odds are between +120 and +130, depending on what Sports Book you look at. But Roethlisberger is better than three-to-one? If the Steelers win, the writers are going to lean towards him. The QB for MVP option hasn't happened quite as regularly in the past decade as in the past, but they have never given the award to him before, so the writers will give Big Ben the benefit of the doubt if it is close. Similarly, you are better off betting on Rodgers for MVP (+175) than you are betting the Packers (-130). My Take: I agree with Steve on this. The only red flag that I would raise here is would the voters avoid Ben because of his tumultuous offseason? Over 3:1 is good enough for the risk.

Aaron Rodgers TD Passes
This is a two-part bet created by Steve: The over-under on TD passes for Rodgers is 2. You bet the under on that, even though you aren't getting great odds (-155). Then you bet a smaller amount that Rodgers will throw exactly 2 TD passes (which is +200). I think the chances Rodgers throws three touchdowns on the Steelers defense is pretty low. If he throws one touchdown, you win the under bet. If he throws 2 (which I think is the most likely outcome), you push on the over/under and get paid off two-to-one on the "exactly 2 touchdowns" bet. Here's how that could play out: You bet $100 on the under and $50 on exactly 2. If Rodgers throws no touchdowns or one touchdown, you net $14 (lose $50 on the 2 td bet, win $64 on the over/under). If he throws 2 touchdowns, you net $100 (push on over/under, win $100 on exactly 2). You could hedge this further by betting Rodgers for MVP as well.

WR Prop Bets featuring James Jones
If you like the Packers, here is a potential parlay or 2-part bet that I like featuring JJ: Take Jones to have MORE receiving yards than Steelers' TE Heath Miller (EVEN) and then take Jones to have MORE receptions than Packers' WR Jordy Nelson (+105). If you really like Jones, feel free to throw on an Andrew Jackson on him to score the game's 1st Touchdown (12:1) or the Packers' 1st TD (7:1). Believe in JJ for a nice pay day.

HISTORICAL PROP-Total Passing Yards: Aaron Rodgers Super Bowl 45 vs. Brett Favre Super Bowl 31
I would never bet this. It is simply ridiculous. As if Rodgers needs any more connection to Brett Favre, we are now pinning them in a head-to-head match for stats from a game that already happened. Silly. For the record, it's Rodgers (-29.5). If you want, you can even bet Roethlisburger against himself from his last Super Bowl appearance!

Here we stand. We are both nervous wrecks and NEED distractions. If you know us well enough, you know Steve and I embody the term FANATIC when it comes to Green Bay Packer football. Hopefully, you also know that if things on Sunday do not go well, it may be a storybook ending for us on Monday. Keep your legs, toes and fingers crossed. Until then...

Green Bay Packers (-2.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Super Bowl 45

Rob's Take: I have previously written about how much I disgust the amount of hype and praise The Pack is getting right now. I dislike that they are 2.5 point favorites over a team that has lost only 4 games all season to 4 teams that had 11 or more wins. What worries me most is the tendency of the Green Bay offense to take regularly scheduled catnaps during games. That could be quite problematic against the #1 scoring defense in the NFL.

The media has been hammering on the fact that the Packers are less experienced and a young team. More importantly, I believe they are hungrier. The Steelers have been there before, but when it comes down to a game of football, I think it really carries no value. I have to push my chips All-In on Dom Capers and the Packers defense to overcome a couple of those offensive siestas to bring the trophy back to Titletown.
Pick: Packers 27, Steelers 20

Steve's Take:
First of all, let me say that I am already an emotional wreck over this game. Last night I had a dream that the Packers won by two touchdowns, only to wake up in a panic because I was worried that my dream would jinx the team. There is nothing rational about what will happen this week. I have spent a dangerous amount of time thinking about which routines to keep or break to not ruin any voodoo or juju or karma or whatever you want to call it when it comes to this game. I think I am going to be excited at some point, but mostly I am nervous and terrified right now. Why do I love this sport again?

Okay. For the sake of Packer fans everywhere, I am continuing my trend and going with the Steelers. However, I have to say that I am really surprised at this line. I know the Packers have won three straight road games, but they looked pretty shaky in that second half against the Bears. As impressive as that Falcons game was, the Packers haven't played that many great games from start to finish. Yet they are favored in this game. Against a team playing it's third Super Bowl in six years. A team with the #1 scoring defense in the NFL.

In addition, the Packers have been particularly poor in close games during the Mike McCarthy/Aaron Rodgers era. I'm not sure either of them can be blamed for this, but I have a hard time remembering too many memorable game winning drives with them. How will this team react in a close game? We just saw the Steelers pull this off in the Super Bowl. And they are getting points? I'm confused.
Pick: Steelers 24, Packers 20. Here's to hoping I'm wrong again.

And to wrap it all off, here is a special, super edition of the Bullet-Less4: Top Chants you may hear from Packer fans in Dallas:

KUUUUUUHHHHHHNNNNNNN!!!!!!!!

YANCY THIGPEN! Clap-clap, clapclapclap!

NO MEANS NO! NO MEANS NO! NO MEANS NO!


http://www.pacfan.com/gopack.wav

2 comments:

  1. I feel both of your pain. In addition to all of that, I have a compulsive need to check up on the drama surrounding Maurkice Pouncey's high-ankle sprain at least once per hour as if my life depended on it.

    Packers 31, Steelers 17

    Yep. I said it.

    -AA

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  2. The drama builds until Sunday.

    I will continue my season long obsession with the Green Bay Packers. I'm sorry if it seems like a band wagon...because it is. I have hitched onto the Aaron Rodgers train four four years in my fantasy keeper league (Two years in)...

    Great post fellas, I have been following this all playoffs. The entertainment value has been high.

    I am reversing the Steelers Super Bowl XLIII fortune...No one likes a YINSER!!!

    Green Bay - 27
    Pittsburgh - 23

    -PES

    ReplyDelete